Market Overview: New Highs Amid Structural Divergence
On March 3, 2026, China's A-share market started strong. The Shanghai Composite Index rose after opening, successfully surpassing its January 14 high to reach its highest level in nearly a decade since July 2, 2015. The Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index also opened higher, reflecting positive overall sentiment. However, the market displayed significant structural divergence rather than a broad-based rally.
Hotspot Focus: Geopolitics Reshaping Sector Logic
Ongoing escalation of tensions in the Middle East served as the core market driver today, impacting two main areas:
- Direct Beneficiaries: Energy & Strategic Metals: Rising oil prices fueled continued strength in oil and gas resource stocks, such as PetroChina (601857.SH) and Sinopec (600028.SH). More notably, the price of tungsten products, dubbed the "war metal," surged by 30,000 yuan per ton in a single day, with a year-to-date increase nearing 80%. This directly catalyzed share prices of related listed companies. Stocks like Zhangyuan Tungsten (002378.SZ) and China Tungsten and Hightech Materials (000657.SZ) became market focal points, with Zhangyuan Tungsten showing particularly strong performance recently.
- Supply Chain Security & Tech Restriction Concerns: News of potential U.S. restrictions on exports of Nvidia's high-end AI chips to China cast a shadow over the technology industry chain. Although OpenAI stated its services would not be used by military intelligence agencies, external technological restrictions have heightened long-term market focus on domestic substitution and self-reliance.
Observations on Liquidity & Currency
The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a net withdrawal of 491.7 billion yuan via open market operations today, indicating a steady and neutral approach to liquidity management. Concurrently, the central parity rate of the Chinese yuan against the U.S. dollar was set sharply stronger by 148 basis points, reaching its highest level since May 2023. This reflects robust currency resilience and serves as a macro-level positive for A-share assets.
Commodity Market Linkages
International gold prices climbed above $5,370 per ounce, while futures for methanol and fuel oil surged sharply, resonating with the resource stock rally in the equity market. In contrast, the sharp decline in lithium carbonate futures prices revealed internal divergence and cost pressures within the new energy industry chain.
Outlook
The market's breakthrough of a key psychological barrier at the index level is conducive to boosting risk appetite. However, the main market trends are clearly centered around geopolitics and resource security, presenting a "split market" scenario. Investors should be wary of increased volatility in overheated sectors after significant short-term gains, while also monitoring whether the long-term growth logic of tech stocks faces reassessment under external constraints.
This article does not constitute any investment advice. The stock market involves risks, and investment requires caution!