Market Overview The A-share market opened with a divergent pattern today. The Shanghai Composite Index opened 0.09% higher, while the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index opened slightly lower. Sector-wise, driven by policies and events, the military equipment and commercial aerospace sectors were active. Sinopec (600028.SH) hit the daily limit-up at the opening auction following approval of its restructuring plan. Notably, the combined trading volume of the two markets exceeded 500 billion yuan in early trading, a significant increase of 50.9 billion yuan compared to the same period yesterday, indicating a warming market sentiment.
Macro Data Analysis The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics released positive structural signals for December:
- Price Index Recovery: The December PPI fell by 1.9% year-on-year but increased by 0.2% month-on-month, marking two consecutive months of positive growth, with the year-on-year decline narrowing continuously. The month-on-month increase in producer goods prices, especially in mining and raw materials industries, reflects marginal improvement in industrial demand.
- Stable Core Inflation: The December CPI rose by 0.8% year-on-year, while the core CPI (excluding food and energy) increased by 1.2% year-on-year, maintaining a growth rate above 1% for the fourth consecutive month, suggesting a gradual strengthening of domestic demand fundamentals.
- Easing Cost Pressure: The Purchasing Price Index for Industrial Producers (PPIRM) rose 0.4% month-on-month in December. Notably, prices for non-ferrous metals and wire surged 10.5% year-on-year and 2.5% month-on-month, warranting attention to the cost-pass-through capabilities of related industrial chain companies.
Sector and Capital Flow Trends
- Cyclical Sectors in Focus: The continuous improvement in PPI data, particularly the stabilization and recovery of upstream raw material prices, is expected to provide positive support for cyclical sectors such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and building materials.
- Policy Tailwinds: The new policy allowing loans for projects on the "white list" under the real estate financing coordination mechanism to be extended for up to five years helps alleviate liquidity pressure on related enterprises and projects, stabilizing market expectations.
- Liquidity Observation: Although the central bank's open market operations resulted in a net withdrawal this week, the margin financing balance in the two markets surged by 15.783 billion yuan yesterday, indicating increased willingness of risk-seeking capital to enter the market.
Risk Alert In the futures market, polysilicon prices hit the daily limit-down during the session, warranting caution regarding its potential impact on related listed companies in the photovoltaic industry chain.
Conclusion Overall, the macro data showing both volume and price increases provides fundamental support for the market. The expansion in trading volume also suggests incremental funds are testing the waters. The short-term market may see structural opportunities revolving around the economic recovery theme and policy-benefiting sectors. Investors may focus on cyclical sectors benefiting from the PPI recovery, core consumer goods supported by consumption policies, and areas bolstered by industrial policies.
This article does not constitute any investment advice. The stock market involves risks, and investment requires caution!