Overnight heavyweight events roiled global markets. The successful capture of Venezuelan President Maduro by US forces has paralyzed the country's oil exports. This sudden geopolitical event will likely heighten short-term concerns about the stability of global energy supply, potentially supporting international oil prices and the energy sector.
Mixed signals from the macro front. Vanguard's forecast for the 2026 US economy suggests GDP growth could accelerate to 2.25% with a labor market rebound. However, strong growth coupled with tariff effects may keep inflation stubbornly above the 2% target. This "growth + sticky inflation" mix could slow the Fed's easing pace, posing long-term pressure on global risk asset valuations.
Domestic market focus:
- Liquidity: The central bank drained a net 433.6 billion yuan today, indicating a steady and neutral monetary policy aimed at smoothing short-term liquidity fluctuations.
- Price Data: Hog prices rose 1.7% month-on-month in late December, which may exert some upward pressure on CPI, while falling prices for some industrial products suggest domestic demand needs further consolidation.
- Investment Insight: The case of renowned investor Duan Yongping's long-term holding of Apple stock, yielding massive returns, reaffirms the value of focusing on high-quality companies and holding for the long term. In a complex environment, selecting companies with core competitiveness and stable cash flow is particularly crucial.
Today's Outlook: Geopolitical risks may stimulate short-term sentiment in oil & gas, gold, and defense sectors. However, the market's main narrative should still return to domestic economic fundamentals and policy direction. Investors are advised to focus on sectors related to energy security, inflation beneficiaries, and high-dividend defensive plays, while remaining cautious about volatility in high-valuation sectors.
This article does not constitute any investment advice. The stock market involves risks, and investment requires caution!