Looking ahead to 2026, the A-share market, after the valuation-recovery bull run in 2025, is expected to enter a new phase of slow bull driven by earnings growth. Major institutions forecast the index could achieve a gain of around 10% for the full year.
Shift in Core Driving Logic: The market consensus is that the foundations supporting the bull market (global liquidity easing, AI industry wave) remain, but the core driver will shift from "multiple expansion" to "earnings verification." UBS expects A-share profit growth to potentially rise from 6% in 2025 to 8% in 2026, while Goldman Sachs forecasts a 14% earnings growth. This means companies' actual profitability will become a more solid foundation for stock price appreciation.
Two Prominent Investment Themes Emerge:
- Technology & Growth: Areas like AI application (liquid cooling, optical communication, domestic computing power), commercial aerospace, and new energy innovation (solid-state batteries, energy storage) are consistently favored as long-term industrial trends.
- Resources & Cyclicals: Sectors such as non-ferrous metals (copper, aluminum) and new materials in basic chemicals are expected to show earnings resilience, supported by a weak US dollar cycle and "anti-involution" policies aimed at improving industrial profits.
Market Rhythm and Risks: The market may follow a rhythm of "spring harvest, summer consolidation, and autumn-winter accumulation." Investors should closely monitor the following risks:
- The strength of domestic demand recovery and the persistence of low inflation.
- Developments in Sino-US trade frictions and the property market.
- Potential阶段性 bubbles in areas like AI.
Overall, the 2026 A-share market will place greater emphasis on the "delivery" of fundamentals. Market structure is expected to move from extreme divergence towards broader diffusion, offering more balanced opportunities for investors.
This article does not constitute any investment advice. The stock market involves risks, and investing requires caution!