Market Overview: Warming Sentiment, Structural Divergence
Today's market exhibited structural characteristics. Hong Kong stocks performed strongly, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising over 2% at one point, led by large-cap tech and semiconductor stocks. In the A-share market, the Shanghai Composite Index recorded ten consecutive positive days, but declining stocks outnumbered gainers, indicating significant divergence. Tech sectors such as humanoid robots, AI agents, and semiconductors surged in the afternoon, becoming major highlights.
Key Observations and Risk Warnings
- Beware of High Premium Risk: The secondary market price of SDIC Silver Futures LOF (Class A) shows a significant premium. Investors must be highly vigilant. The severe deviation between the fund's NAV and its trading price is unsustainable. Blindly chasing the high price may lead to substantial losses.
- Continued Activity in Tech Themes:
- AI & Robotics: Meta's multi-billion dollar acquisition of the general AI Agent company Manus ignited market imagination for the AI application layer. Coupled with expectations for Tesla's Optimus contracting and domestic policy support, the robotics industry chain saw soaring interest.
- Semiconductors: Supported by AI infrastructure and domestic substitution logic, the sector performed strongly.
- IPOs & New Listings: Biren Technology (6082.HK) priced at the top of its range, reflecting market enthusiasm for scarce domestic GPU targets. Hong Kong's full-year IPO fundraising exceeded HKD 284.4 billion, indicating active market financing.
- Macro & Policy Front:
- Stronger RMB: Both offshore and onshore USD/CNY rates broke through the 7.0 level, which is conducive to boosting asset prices and expectations for foreign capital inflows.
- Industrial Policy: The Ministry of Education plans to release AI-in-education policies next year; the "VAT Law Implementation Regulations" were announced, further clarifying the tax environment.
- Industry Dynamics: China's annual auto sales surpassed Japan for the first time, ranking first globally, demonstrating manufacturing competitiveness.
Investment Advice: Current market risk appetite has improved, but structural characteristics are prominent. Investors are advised to stay away from high-premium products to guard against irrational speculation risks. Allocation can be considered along three main lines: technological innovation (AI, robotics, semiconductors), policy support (education informatization), and earnings certainty (auto industry chain), while paying attention to timing and avoiding chasing rallies.